By Kathryn Dura
In the lead up to the U.S. presidential elections, the candidates discussed numerous issues: immigration, healthcare, ISIS, etc. However, the ongoing war in Afghanistan, the longest in U.S. history, garnered little, if any, coverage. With conflicts raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya, the Middle East is, admittedly, an eventful region, to say the least. However, a 15-year war that has cost 686 billion USD and killed 2,300 U.S. troops thus far warrants some national discussion. As such, this piece will briefly outline the current state of the war in Afghanistan.
Politically, Afghanistan is in poor shape. The current administration, headed by President Ashraf Ghani and backed by the U.S., struggles to control the deteriorating government. The Afghan parliament is in the process of dismissing key ministers due to poor performance and budgetary issues. This will paralyze government institutions; to avoid the abrupt freeze, President Ghani instructed the sacked ministers to remain on the job until their Supreme Court makes a ruling. Government corruption weakens the President’s case against the ministers. In 2015, Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index ranked Afghanistan 166 out of 168 countries. Billions of dollars in Western financial aid should fuel the Afghan economy; yet, much of the funding is used to bribe armed groups and political elites, who support “ethnocentric agendas, exacerbate tribal rivalries and political intolerance, erode political will, and increase impunity for the powerful.” Finally, Kabul failed to oversee new parliamentary elections, which would reestablish much needed political legitimacy. Afghanis rightly feel betrayed by their leaders, while the country faces a dangerous political vacuum.
The Taliban seeks to fill this hole. While the American public is understandably fixated on Syria, the Taliban is gaining territory and and fighting for power over urban centers. In fact, the Taliban currently controls more territory than it has at any other time since 2001. Meanwhile, faced with Taliban encroachment, the Afghan military is increasingly choosing to surrender rather than fight. Additionally, the Western-trained military suffers from declining numbers due to high attrition rates and record high casualty rates. With NATO serving a purely advisory role, the largely inexperienced forces are struggling to hold their own. This is compounded by U.S. troop withdrawal; today, there are fewer than 10,000 U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. While U.S. airstrikes remain effective, in the wake of last year’s mistaken hospital bombing, Washington is hesitant to exercise them. Meanwhile, the Taliban took a page from ISIS’ playbook and has massively upped its social media presence, sharing videos of their military victories and suicide bombings. These videos highlight the weak Afghan military and government and visually contradict official assurances of stability and security. Other posts demonstrate the Taliban’s benevolence, depicting captured soldiers returning to their families with promises not to continue fighting the insurgents. This tactic seeks to exploit the population’s increasing frustration with the Afghan government.
To leverage its growing bargaining power, the Taliban recently restarted talks in Qatar aimed at negotiating a political solution with Afghan officials. Previous efforts to negotiate through Pakistan in 2015 broke down after the an internal power struggle consumed the Taliban following its founder’s death. After the latest round of successful talks in Qatar, a Taliban envoy also traveled to Pakistan to discuss Afghan peace. However, following the deadly bombings of a NATO base and German consulate, President Ghani called on the UN to add the Taliban leader to its sanctions list, complicating the peace talks. Still, the Taliban’s previous chief negotiator recently urged the insurgency’s current leader to support the reconciliation efforts. He wants the Taliban to “position itself as an Afghan political movement independent” from Pakistani influence.
In sum, while the corrupt Afghan government struggles to maintain political and military power, the population grows increasingly disillusioned with Kabul, and the Taliban thrives. This conflict is far from over. Following the election results, the Taliban called for President-elect Donald Trump to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan and end Washington’s involvement in the country. Hopefully, the President-elect will finally give this pressing conflict the attention it deserves.
Kathryn Dura is a junior studying International Relations and Math at the University of Pennsylvania.
