By William Dossett
The Western Sahara conflict is one of the longest running and least well-known sovereignty disputes in the world. De-colonized in 1975, the territory remains a disputed region between and the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, which fought a war for independence until the UN-sponsored ceasefire in 1991. International NGOs have documented serious human rights violations by Moroccan forces during the war; furthermore, there have been some restrictions on speech and press freedoms in roughly 85% of the territory currently administered by Morocco as its Southern Provinces. Morocco denies silencing pro-independence voices and accuses the Polisario of abusing and deceiving Sahrawi refugees in Algeria. Disputes over voting rights have indefinitely delayed a referendum on independence proposed by the UN. Meanwhile, the Polisario have rejected a Moroccan plan for autonomy without independence. For decades, the Western Sahara has been a defining feature of Moroccan bilateral relations, especially with Algeria and other African nations. Despite its regional importance, however, it has never attained the same level of global prominence as have conflicts such as Israel-Palestine and the former Yugoslavia.
This state of affairs, however, appears to have changed. The Western Sahara has seized headlines around the world for the first time in years, threatening Morocco’s rising international position. A December 2015 ruling by the European Court of Justice has halted the implementation of a Morocco-EU agricultural trade pact due to human rights violations. They argue that any deal must exclude the disputed region. This prompted the kingdom to suspend diplomatic ties with the bloc entirely, despite the EU’s promised appeal of the decision. The agreement’s future, as well as continued positive relations between Morocco and its northern neighbor, are now in limbo. This drastic step underlines the existential importance that Morocco attaches to its Southern Provinces. This disagreement could have profound consequences for Morocco-EU trade. However, it also represents an opportunity to advance a much broader and more important agenda.
Morocco is uniquely positioned to pioneer innovative approaches to mitigating climate change. The country contains a wide variety of climactic zones, but is overwhelmingly dependent on inconsistent rainfall. As water scarcity and weather unpredictability increase in tandem with climate change, the kingdom will feel the pinch of drought, economic uncertainty, and food insecurity more and more frequently. In this respect, Morocco is similar to many developing countries in Africa and elsewhere. The kingdom’s Plan Maroc Vert (Green Morocco Plan) is a forward-thinking and comprehensive approach to attempt to promote sustainability, resilience, and growth in the agricultural sector. Launched in 2008, it provides generous subsidies for modernization, implements a national water management plan, and encourages private investment in farms, all while emphasizing renewable energy rather than imported fossil fuels. A particularly promising feature is the plan’s focus on promoting crops that are suited to local climates, resistant to climactic fluctuations, and internationally competitive such as olive and fruit trees.
Both the World Bank and McKinsey & Company have cited Plan Maroc Vert as a model for developing countries looking to protect and grow their agricultural sectors, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions most likely to be devastated by climate change. The plan must be shown to be economically beneficial, however, before any other nation will adopt a similar approach. While its improvements to food security are important, growth in the export sector will likely be the most significant bellwether of its success in the eyes of other developing countries, most of whom are looking to break into lucrative Western export markets and raise standards of living at home. If disputes over the Western Sahara derail Moroccan exports to its largest trade partner, it may discourage other countries from embracing ambitious but necessary agricultural reforms similar to Plan Maroc Vert.
To make matters worse, the trade spat has led the EU to cancel a €12m contribution to Morocco earmarked for the 2016 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh in November, where world leaders hope to deepen and expand on the groundbreaking accord signed in Paris in late 2015. The money represents a sizeable portion of the funds needed to put the conference together, and its withholding could jeopardize the meeting’s success. In addition, allowing this relatively low-priority issue (for the Europeans) to derail critically important climate change negotiations could hurt the EUs credibility with the developing countries that must be brought on board if the Marrakesh conference is to produce a lasting agreement.
Europe and the United States should immediately engage in a joint effort to finally end the Western Sahara conflict, pressuring Morocco, the Polisario Front, and Algeria to resolve the crisis quickly and fairly. The disagreements run deep and the conflict needs strong, credible mediators to work out a compromise either on a referendum or an autonomy plan. A central concern must be that human rights be respected on all sides. The political challenges of wading into the Western Sahara dispute, while daunting, are undoubtedly worth facing. Besides peacefully resolving a long-running human rights crisis and promoting Morocco’s innovative approach to tackling climate change and economic instability, serious engagement could bring several other significant benefits. First, it would help solidify trade relations with one of Africa and the Middle East’s largest exporters, particularly in non-oil terms. Second, it would allow the United States to demonstrate leadership on a divisive issue for the African continent that has been increasingly neglected in favor of the Middle East and East Asia. Third, it would strengthen a critical partner that stands for political and religious moderation in a region struggling with instability, radicalization and conflict.
Faced with unorthodox foreign policy challenges such as climate change, it is important for world policymakers to look for innovative solutions in unexpected places. The conflict in the Western Sahara, largely ignored for over forty years, is one such place. A push for a peace settlement now, when Morocco’s economic and political role in the world is at a critical juncture, could dramatically boost climate change mitigation efforts and productive engagement with the developing world.
William Dossett is a senior at the University of Pennsylvania, studying International Relations.
